The one area of the country that bucks the La Niña trend is across the Gulf Coast. Central California has the highest likelihood (50-60%) of seeing precipitation totals fall well below average for the month. In contrast, a drier-than-average February is expected across Florida and California/Southwest. The highest chance for a wetter-than-normal end to meteorological winter is across the High Plains in Montana and North Dakota as well as across the Midwest. Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Missouri/Mississippi River Valleys. The influence of La Niña is evident in the precipitation outlook as well. Wetter than average across the Great Lakes and Mississippi/Missouri Valley Dry out West. Climate model output along with the state of other climate phenomena, like the North Atlantic Oscillation, were also used to create the final forecast. However, because La Niña isn’t the only influence, the outlook doesn’t 100% mimic what would be expected during an average La Niña. and colder temperatures across the northern U.S. The result is often warmer temperatures across the southern U.S. In general, La Niña influences conditions across the United States by altering the strength and location of the Pacific jet stream, which in turn affects the path of weather systems “downstream” across the U.S. One main influence in the Outlook for February is the current La Niña ongoing across the Pacific Ocean. In contrast, there is a tilt in the odds towards a colder-than-average February across the Pacific Northwest stretching eastward to the Northern Plains.Īverage location of the jet stream and typical temperature and precipitation impacts during La Niña winter over North America. The highest likelihood of a warmer-than-average month (50-60%) is found across the East Coast from Florida to southern Maine. Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the southern and eastern United States. The February 2022 temperature outlook certainly bears more than a passing resemblance to what we would typically expect during a La Niña-influence winter. Warmer than average across the South and East, cooler up north. NOAA image, based on Climate Prediction Center data. White does not mean "average." It means a warm, cool, or near average February are all equally likely. Darker colors mean greater chances, not bigger temperature extremes. Map of the contiguous United States (view Alaska) showing which of three temperature outcomes-much warmer than average (red), average, or much cooler than average (blue)-are most likely for the month of February. Head to the end of this post for more on the math behind the outlooks, including how experts calculate the probability of the less likely (but still possible!) outcomes. White does not mean average conditions are favored it means above-, below-, or near-average conditions are equally likely. Darker colors reflect higher chances of a given outcome, not more extreme conditions. The colors (red or blue for temperatures, brown or teal for precipitation) indicate which outcome is the most likely. We refer to these categories as “well above” and “well below” average. Instead, they are the probability (percent chance) that February temperatures or precipitation will be in the upper, middle, or lower third of the climatological record (1991-2020) for February. NOAA image, based on data from the Climate Prediction Center.Ī reminder: the climate outlook maps are not a forecast for the absolute temperature or precipitation amounts in February. White does not mean "average." It means a wet, dry, or near-average February are all equally likely. Darker colors mean greater chances, not how far above or below average precipitation is likely to be. Map of the contiguous United States ( view Alaska) showing which of three precipitation outcomes-much wetter than average (green), average, or much drier than average (brown)-are most likely for the month of February 2022.
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